I wrote it 3 years ago about the billions Paulson requsted.<\/p>\n
\nThe original is at: http:\/\/fdominicus.blogspot.com\/2008\/09\/im-afraid-itll-be-not-enough.html\n<\/p>\n
\nI just cite it here (just in case anyone tells one could not know)\n<\/p>\n
\nIf one sees how much in debt each US citizen is, people must be aware that 700 MRD will be simple not enough. We\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ve to see also how much worth houses are if loans busted. The price is that high as people are willing to sell it for. if building a house has costed let\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s say 100 000 then that was it\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s worth one build. Howerver the money for it is gone, and now the debt can not be paid. So you have to write down this price to whatever you find acceptable. The difference to 100 000 is a loss. Now this isn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t a big thing if that happens a few times, but if it happens on mass, then nothing can stop this avalanche crumbeling down. Impossible in theoretical and practical means. If you look at the figures of Fay and Fred Mac you\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ll see the loans exceed 5 Billions.(Trillion in US speack) 700 Mrd are a bit above 10% of that value. Howerver let us try to estimate how much worth the houses are. Let us assume that at least a bit money was \u00e2\u20ac\u0153ones\u00e2\u20ac\u009d own. So let\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s say 20 % that\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s around 1 Billion. So the housing are \u00e2\u20ac\u0153worth\u00e2\u20ac\u009d let\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s day roughl 6 Billions. (I know it\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s too low but let\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s just take it for some calculations) This was the prices the lend the money for. let\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s assume that 2 Billion were spend on the mortgages in the last 6 years. During that time the prices have risen by 85 per cent. Let\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s calculate the value that money has had 7 years ago with an inflation rate of 3 % we have
\n2 \/ 1.03^7 = 1,62 Billions, we must also take into account that hardly anyone will buy for that prices so let\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s assume a discount at around 30 % then we have 2,11 billions for the costs of the debt for the houses of this large failures. This alone is 3 time as much as the asked 700 Mrd.\n<\/p>\n
\nAnd guess what that just covers a fraction of the real loans. So I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122d argue with a quite high probability the 700 Mrd will be just the tip of the icebrg. You have to see that the greedy manages have put everything to put out risk on different areas. So we can be 100% sure that the mess us magnitudes larger than implied by this incredible 700 Mrd $. Now say something about throwing good money after bad money.\n<\/p>\n
\nI just can hope I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ve made some error in my calculations, otherwise the devastating \u00e2\u20ac\u0153news \u00e2\u20ac\u009d is : \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Game over\u00e2\u20ac\u009d.\n<\/p>\n
\nThe only \u00e2\u20ac\u0153signs\u00e2\u20ac\u009d that is may be a bit less worse is that, the bad credits were spread all over the world. So in fact everyone having invested in this kind of stuff, really is \u00e2\u20ac\u0153busted\u00e2\u20ac\u009d. Don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t expect to see much from that money back. It\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s time to prepare for even worse times\u00e2\u20ac\u00a6<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
I wrote it 3 years ago about the billions Paulson requsted. The original is at: http:\/\/fdominicus.blogspot.com\/2008\/09\/im-afraid-itll-be-not-enough.html I just cite it here (just in case anyone tells one could not know) If one sees how much in debt each US citizen is, people must be aware that 700 MRD will be simple not enough. We\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ve to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3974],"tags":[6289,6714,6769],"class_list":["post-5568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-allgemein","tag-a-small-lookback","tag-how-it-started","tag-its-getting-absurd"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.q-software-solutions.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5568","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.q-software-solutions.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.q-software-solutions.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.q-software-solutions.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.q-software-solutions.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5568"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.q-software-solutions.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5568\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.q-software-solutions.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5568"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.q-software-solutions.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5568"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.q-software-solutions.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5568"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}