Well maybe thinking is a litttle to much maybe speculate would be the better word.
As you may have read, Euro land is in as deep trouble as the US. It’s an open question who really is the worse, but well that’s another story.
Now we have read a lot of ideas about saving. One of the ideas of saving was a tighter “cooperation”, well it probably is a asked quite much to synchonise 27 different countries, but welll that’s another story again.
But now something changed the ideas slightly. At first Greece is finished. Well just remember the vote then the note vote etc. Anyway Greece just stands for around 350 billions of debt. If you look over Euroland this really is not much. Anyway with the default of Greece bonds french banks will get in knee deep trouble. So far there’s nothing new.
But here we go. The interest Italy has to offer are exploding. We are now well beyond 7%. That means a doubling of your debt in “just” 10 years. Or the other way round with 7% interest and 1.8 trillions of debt (official!!), Italy has to pay interest of 1.8 trillions in 10 years (with 7% interet). No that are as much as 180 biillions a year the budget of italy is well below that of Germany that are around 300 billions. So let’s assume 250 billions. You can see 180 billions are way too much. So saying that Italy is bankrupt also could be seen as fact.
Now as you know ESFS III should be leveareged to over 1 trillions guranteees (which seems to be illusory) just see my entry on my old mises blog at: http://mises.org/Community/blogs/fdominicus/archive/2011/11/09/extension-to.aspx
So with high likliness this all can not be expected to work. Now the “new” idea is to split up the euro zone into a core zone and a “rest” And now comes the information I found most “revealing”. This is driven by France and Germany. Now we know France and Germany have seen itself as “engines” of the eu process. but guess what the french banks have a hell of outstanding bonds from Italy of around 270 billions!. Now the budget of France surely is in that areas. So if italyy defaults France is “finished” also. They can not bear another 270 billions alons. If you see that with the work on the core europe one can come on some ideas….