Schlagwort-Archive: capital control

The spiral of interventions

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Well now we see another template example of interventions.

Argentina, has obviously left the area of markets due to the “politics” of Mrs Kirchner and her spouse. In a side-note
of the newspaper of my wife I found: Inflation 25% and official course between Peso and $. And what has happened before.

It started with good running exports and higher as usual prices for the exported goods. So far so normal, then comes the Kirchners and what did they do?
They spend this money on welfare (and if there is but one way to get money burned faster, really burn it). This has bought here enough votes (yes the merits of democracy) to
get re-elected. and it has come as it always comes.

The prices for the export goods are falling and she does not have enough money for their “welfare” operations. Well one might think well one must cut them back. That’s normal thinking, but not the
Deledefs way, and so they make more debts (one just can say as usual) and started to make restrictions on free trade. Well if you mess with the markets the only answer there is appears, the prices start
raising. And indeed even the stupid newspaper of my wife at least has to “admit” that inflation is beyond 25%. 25% means in a little over 3 years your property halfs in money value. You can bet the only things raising as fast as inflation are always the all-day-needed goods. And so the poor start paying the bill immediately.

Now the people act logically and try to get rid of the Peso and that means they buy other currencies, and this get the next reaction. Controls on the money export/exchange and indeed this is what Frau Kirchner and the Poligangsters did, they “forbid” exchanging into $ and now $ are scarce and a scarce thing does what? Exactly it raised in Price, now the official exchange rate and the “paid” exchange rate differ around 40%.
Very “appealing”, the members of the parliament (probably of Mrs Kirchners party), do what? They buy more Dollars and they can, so much to “equality” before the law

So the end is coming, and the interventions gets more and more by the hour. People which have gained at least some wealth are not expropriated by the inflation initiated by interventions of the state. The sucker spiral turns faster. I guess within the next 5 years Argentina will fall back below 3rd world level. So dear Argentines, say “thank you” to your deledefs. And bite yourself because of your stupidity.

My predictions

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just to keep that written down. I know no deledef will read it and no-one will agree. But be it as is.
The path is crystal clear IMHO.

I wrote yesterday about inflation. And there’s a clear evidence for it that prices start running (if they start cantering, everything will go down the drain). The central banks do not do anything against it currently. It was highest time to make money lending more expensive around 1-2 years ago. The central banks did the opposite. They made
money cheaper than cheap. Fact is with daily deposits you’re loosing money. So I predict a raise of the inflation in EU country at or around 4-5 % in the next 5 years, the same will hold for the US. (1st Prediction)

Bonds have risen extremely. It will not be possible to make money even more cheaper. It could be that it will be demanded that the rich buy worthless bonds from the diverse countries, but this will not happen really soon. So I predict that bonds will not raise much more, instead I predict bonds will start falling within the next 2-3 years. (2 nd Prediction)

Because of the massive liquidity overhang, prices of all commodities will raise beyond reasonable limits. So we’ll see the development of new bubbles. (3 rd Prediction). I think the prices will start raising this years.

Because of the massive amounts of debt in the developed countries. I expect cuttings in areas like investing in infrastructure and everything where there is no law to “back” up the claims. Now the services will be needed still so towns, lands, countries will start raising their prices also. I expect higher prices for water, sewage, waste, street cleaning, Kindergarten you can put in here anything that is “provided” by elected “authorities”. (4 th prediction) (within the next decade)

Saving in the deledefs meaning always has meant or means, raising taxes. And so I predict raising taxes also (5 th prediction) (within the next decade)

Because people will try to avoid being taxes more heavily. The money will start flowing toward low level tax countries. This is a serious threat to any Deledef and so I expect that they will discuss and hindering free trade and free money flow. There will probably be extra taxes if you start bringing you money outside of your home country. I even could imagine that they introduce “artificial” exchange rates. Just to save the “poor” defrauders, because they will name it “unfair”. (6 th prediction)

There is but one thing (I’m just wishing for) which could change things considerably. This would be the end of the Fiat-money fractional reserve system… I predict for the country breaking this taboo, will prosper beyond any imagination. Some countries currently have this chance, I bet they will not see it and do the same mistakes we’ve done with your federal banks. I do not expect it in the EU nor US. This countries still have no clue about “earning” money any more. The sums mentioned in the area investment banking etc, have not “foundation”, but they have much influence and you see what happens if the do wrong. The countries will fail them out. And the politicians do profit massively from this…

This leads to my last prediction. We will hear more often the Phrase (it’s as all just a word we have for that in German “alternativlos” (you can roughly translate it as “we have no choice”, unparalleled, the one and only choice) . If it comes to more control they will probably not name it as such. It will be “laws against speculation”, “program-to-enhance-competion”, “law-for-equal-opportunities” or such but in fact it means. “We are right, you have to comply or we bring you to jail! (7 th Prediction)