Schlagwort-Archive: Predictions

Too big to fail?

I for my part starting to thinking that this is impossible. There’s a limit to seize in everything. I even will start betting on “too big to survive” instead.

Why do I think that… Well look at the US, the government has grown bigger every day since the 2nd world war and more and more goes through government hands. And states do not “produce” anything they are just “consuming” so more and more things are getting consumed by the ever increasing government. As we can see the government has consumed not just what they have stolen, but also what they have “borrowed”. And this now is simply “too” much, to large the debts not to fail. In short too large to survive.

The states in the EURO zone face a similar problem. The governments in every country have grown and the EU bureaucracy. So in a way there’s a level more too “consume” and not to produce.
Nearly all the EU states have too much debt. Now they want to cure the problems caused by seize with inflating the seize even more. In the whole history of nature and mankind. Nothing could grow beyond some limit. Just look back to dinosaurs. They grow bigger every generation and suddenly they collapsed and “vanished”. Every empire was destroyed AFTER it has out-grown a size which was survivable.

Nature also tells us there is alway scarcity. Lions can not survive without enough prey. The prey can not survive without enough grass. Grass can not survive without enough rain and sun. Governments can only survive with enough support from the population. There is a point of no-return where the population simply does not support government any longer. Even the most inhuman government can not fight all of their population. (All is way too much but I can’t tell where the limit is)

Check the big empires they all extend and extend and extend and finally collapsed. This is what happens if things are getting too big. Governments world-wide are way too big to survive, so are large corporations. Yes they will rule and yes they will make our life on earth hell. But finally they will break down.

Nobody know when things really got too big or start to tumble. So take this with some tons of salt. It seems the debt spiral has turned into a death sprial. You can see the time-spans where new even higher (and IMHO more absurd) figurers are mentioned. See e.g here in Euro land the costs on “saving” .. whomever. It has started with around 300 billions. and now with new leverages we’re talking about 2 trillions. This increase just happened in a year. Do you remember Paulson, he wanted to start with 750 billions and now we are way beyond a few trillions. This raise has happened in just 3 years. So you see the nearer we come to the present the higher the figures. With rates of growth well beyond 1000% a year. In the case of the EU we have a raise of roughly 1.7 trillions that is an increas from 1.4 / 0.3 = 466,67 %. Still it does not even cover all the debt just the debt of a state like Italy. Now unfortunately there is also Spain, Portugal, Fraance and last but not least Germany. ….. If we just look at the debts of the biggest countries in Euro land we are talking about 7- 10 trillions of debt. And well the less likely it will be that they will pay their debts. So no EUR land will not survive in that form simple because it has outgrown it’s seize of survival

Either the US or the EUro countries will break down, before I bet we see some other developing countries to face their doom. Too much money from EUR countries and US countries was put there. If they start contracting to pay their obligations, those countries will be without a chance. But it does no help. Assume that Greece will default on their debts, then this debts are simply gone. And one of the other bank will face deep troubles (Currently it seems the french banks are quite high exposed to risks resulting on Greek) It could be no surprise that Sarkozy tries massivly to find new lender. I guess he knows all too well how dire the french situation really is. The unemployment rate is especially high among the younger one, and central planning does it’s best to be as inefficient as possible. And yes it’s not a surprise that the EZB has bought securities from the PIG states, they know without it they would be gone.

Germany has it’s own massive problems which still are unsolved. The pension promises e.g are simply terrible high and covered by anything. The taxes can be well over 50% and that’s unbearable.

So I extend my predictions with that: Within the next five years the EUR zone will not exist in it’s current shape.

The near future predictions are difficult because we do not now what will be faster the contraction of the economy or the printing of money. If we assume that contraction will prevail we should see falling stocks, falling gold till the printing press will win. After that we will see higher inflation. I predicted around 5 % within the next 3 or so years. It could be that this will take a little bit longer (but then the inflation will raise well beyond 5-7 %. That will be the last thing we remember while seeing the current governments and states collapsing. Simply because of “TOO BIG TO SURVIVE”

After that who knows?

My predictions

just to keep that written down. I know no deledef will read it and no-one will agree. But be it as is.
The path is crystal clear IMHO.

I wrote yesterday about inflation. And there’s a clear evidence for it that prices start running (if they start cantering, everything will go down the drain). The central banks do not do anything against it currently. It was highest time to make money lending more expensive around 1-2 years ago. The central banks did the opposite. They made
money cheaper than cheap. Fact is with daily deposits you’re loosing money. So I predict a raise of the inflation in EU country at or around 4-5 % in the next 5 years, the same will hold for the US. (1st Prediction)

Bonds have risen extremely. It will not be possible to make money even more cheaper. It could be that it will be demanded that the rich buy worthless bonds from the diverse countries, but this will not happen really soon. So I predict that bonds will not raise much more, instead I predict bonds will start falling within the next 2-3 years. (2 nd Prediction)

Because of the massive liquidity overhang, prices of all commodities will raise beyond reasonable limits. So we’ll see the development of new bubbles. (3 rd Prediction). I think the prices will start raising this years.

Because of the massive amounts of debt in the developed countries. I expect cuttings in areas like investing in infrastructure and everything where there is no law to “back” up the claims. Now the services will be needed still so towns, lands, countries will start raising their prices also. I expect higher prices for water, sewage, waste, street cleaning, Kindergarten you can put in here anything that is “provided” by elected “authorities”. (4 th prediction) (within the next decade)

Saving in the deledefs meaning always has meant or means, raising taxes. And so I predict raising taxes also (5 th prediction) (within the next decade)

Because people will try to avoid being taxes more heavily. The money will start flowing toward low level tax countries. This is a serious threat to any Deledef and so I expect that they will discuss and hindering free trade and free money flow. There will probably be extra taxes if you start bringing you money outside of your home country. I even could imagine that they introduce “artificial” exchange rates. Just to save the “poor” defrauders, because they will name it “unfair”. (6 th prediction)

There is but one thing (I’m just wishing for) which could change things considerably. This would be the end of the Fiat-money fractional reserve system… I predict for the country breaking this taboo, will prosper beyond any imagination. Some countries currently have this chance, I bet they will not see it and do the same mistakes we’ve done with your federal banks. I do not expect it in the EU nor US. This countries still have no clue about “earning” money any more. The sums mentioned in the area investment banking etc, have not “foundation”, but they have much influence and you see what happens if the do wrong. The countries will fail them out. And the politicians do profit massively from this…

This leads to my last prediction. We will hear more often the Phrase (it’s as all just a word we have for that in German “alternativlos” (you can roughly translate it as “we have no choice”, unparalleled, the one and only choice) . If it comes to more control they will probably not name it as such. It will be “laws against speculation”, “program-to-enhance-competion”, “law-for-equal-opportunities” or such but in fact it means. “We are right, you have to comply or we bring you to jail! (7 th Prediction)