Schlagwort-Archive: unsustainability

Just give it a name

the disaster can be subsumed under one small sentence.

The problems are there because of the monopolies of states. In this case the monopoly of currencies.

The FED , ECB etc, do just get their position because the state sanctioned it. It’s very easy. Just the Dollar or Euro are the lawfu payment items.
And so there is not market just the big wanter “state”.

The also do nothing against the defraud that banks do lend demand deposits. And so you just whisper bank-run and they get near a heart stroke. This system
is perverted. It does safe defrauders and punishes honest men. And that is called “fair”. It’s obviously just “fair” for those being favored by states. And the state
does do everything to get more and more supporters with bribe.

Give us our money back and we’ll recover. Do more of you interventions and we crash and “recover” therefafter. The first would be the right way but the
Deledefs of alll states, parties will not go that way, it does not suite there “idea” of “fairness”. They are suckers and hell I will name them as such.

The “joy” of parties

Dear Readers I like to tell you a story about FUD.

As you could read in my last entry. Greece is still finished but the deledefs do not admit that. That are not real news. But now it’s get interesting. According to
some blogs in Germany 40 members were excluded from the left party and the right party because they did not agree to the “saving” plan.

There are somewhat below 300 member in it. So just imagine well beyond 10 % were excluded because they did not accept a stupid and guaranteed to fail plan.
Now aren’t party great?

In fact they suck to badly that one just can day fubar. Parties are the most repressive system one can encounter and having such prominent roles as they have is
again fubar. So we are ruled by a fubar system, with fubar money. That’s a few too many things one can not even dream of to repair. In the end the end is clear.
The “systems” will break down. That means violence and yes most of the time war.

Greece again

Well if you look through this blog you always could read warnings. Just one example

But let’s see at the Situation without malice. For austrian economics the problems in Greece are crystal clear. What we see is the end of a boom introduces by manipulated interest rates.
Yes and it’s one hallmark of why the help from EU can not work. The greek politicians have took every cent they could get from the EC. That’s what keeping ones house means in politics. All the
expenses for things were not driven by need and sound money. But driven by the way it works in politics. You must throw out the money, otherwise you will get less next year.

Well in normal economics activities it does not work that way. You invest while you a) see some need for your services and b) you want happy customers… However you do invest usually much more careful. You do know exactly if the customers will not buy your stuff you are finished. So you alway try to get you needs in sync with the things you can offer. There is not automatic payment it’s the customer who decides. Now let’s see how this is not done in political economics. If you ever have visited Greece you know this land is beautiful but harsh. Many live in very small villages, and quite a lot of them are on islands. So transportation is a problem. Anyway if Greece is strong on one area it’s in seafaring. And indeed even many of the Italy ships are manned by Greeks. But now the trouble starts it does not make (unfrortunatly) much sense to build big streets over the islands. But this is what happened with money from the EU. That’s bad. There was money burned, because the ways can not be used economically. They are too big, but now they are there and the trouble starts. They were oversized and therrefor overprizes, and it needs much more even to just maintain them as one could answer for. And it does not help in anyway. The jounger still have left and just the elderly are living there. So who will use the streets in the future?

This are the catastrophies triggered by subsedies. Yes agreed there must be some kind of boom in infrastructure building and maybe even housing. But Greece just has somewhat around 11 million inhabitants. So you can not build an infrastructure suitable for 30 or more millions and hope this can be sustainable. It’s impossible. Another problem in Greece is the corruption and way to large bureacracies. Again countries which more than 5 as many inhabitants do not spend that much mone yon their diverse ministries. (I read somewhere Greece has 49 of them !!!) and politicians, and it seems they are even higher paid than in many other countries with much larger population. Corruption and too large government are a clear sign mark of destruction.

So what can we hope for for the Greek? Well we just can hope they get rid of their functionaries. They must put harsh punishments on corruption (and or just take the responsibiity aware from the bureaucrats), and they needs sound money. I’m afraid this latter will not happen and there for if Greece should leave the Euro the normal population will suffer severly under extreme inflation. This will destabilize the country even more. So I’m afraid the Greece just are at the beginning of the end. And it will (unfortunatly) get much worse. As one can read the decline starts to accelerate. Hundreds and thousands of businesses are driven out of business. How could one expect from less working to have more “money”.

IMHO Greece has spiraled out of control and any “imagination” of control can be burried. No one in Greece will be able to regain it any time soon. The bureaucrats and delebets do not even see it. Of they see it and won’t. But reality strikes and it will strike the harder the longer the wrong ways are followed. Von Mises has put it:
“There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

Greece was at the edge 2 years ago. I’m afraid they are beyond it now. So yes you can see exemplarily what happens to unsustainable systems driven by unsound money and too big governments. Will Greece be a warning ot the other countries? I’m afraid the answer is no, And therefor the end of Greece is just the sad beginning….

Too big to fail?

I for my part starting to thinking that this is impossible. There’s a limit to seize in everything. I even will start betting on “too big to survive” instead.

Why do I think that… Well look at the US, the government has grown bigger every day since the 2nd world war and more and more goes through government hands. And states do not “produce” anything they are just “consuming” so more and more things are getting consumed by the ever increasing government. As we can see the government has consumed not just what they have stolen, but also what they have “borrowed”. And this now is simply “too” much, to large the debts not to fail. In short too large to survive.

The states in the EURO zone face a similar problem. The governments in every country have grown and the EU bureaucracy. So in a way there’s a level more too “consume” and not to produce.
Nearly all the EU states have too much debt. Now they want to cure the problems caused by seize with inflating the seize even more. In the whole history of nature and mankind. Nothing could grow beyond some limit. Just look back to dinosaurs. They grow bigger every generation and suddenly they collapsed and “vanished”. Every empire was destroyed AFTER it has out-grown a size which was survivable.

Nature also tells us there is alway scarcity. Lions can not survive without enough prey. The prey can not survive without enough grass. Grass can not survive without enough rain and sun. Governments can only survive with enough support from the population. There is a point of no-return where the population simply does not support government any longer. Even the most inhuman government can not fight all of their population. (All is way too much but I can’t tell where the limit is)

Check the big empires they all extend and extend and extend and finally collapsed. This is what happens if things are getting too big. Governments world-wide are way too big to survive, so are large corporations. Yes they will rule and yes they will make our life on earth hell. But finally they will break down.

Nobody know when things really got too big or start to tumble. So take this with some tons of salt. It seems the debt spiral has turned into a death sprial. You can see the time-spans where new even higher (and IMHO more absurd) figurers are mentioned. See e.g here in Euro land the costs on “saving” .. whomever. It has started with around 300 billions. and now with new leverages we’re talking about 2 trillions. This increase just happened in a year. Do you remember Paulson, he wanted to start with 750 billions and now we are way beyond a few trillions. This raise has happened in just 3 years. So you see the nearer we come to the present the higher the figures. With rates of growth well beyond 1000% a year. In the case of the EU we have a raise of roughly 1.7 trillions that is an increas from 1.4 / 0.3 = 466,67 %. Still it does not even cover all the debt just the debt of a state like Italy. Now unfortunately there is also Spain, Portugal, Fraance and last but not least Germany. ….. If we just look at the debts of the biggest countries in Euro land we are talking about 7- 10 trillions of debt. And well the less likely it will be that they will pay their debts. So no EUR land will not survive in that form simple because it has outgrown it’s seize of survival

Either the US or the EUro countries will break down, before I bet we see some other developing countries to face their doom. Too much money from EUR countries and US countries was put there. If they start contracting to pay their obligations, those countries will be without a chance. But it does no help. Assume that Greece will default on their debts, then this debts are simply gone. And one of the other bank will face deep troubles (Currently it seems the french banks are quite high exposed to risks resulting on Greek) It could be no surprise that Sarkozy tries massivly to find new lender. I guess he knows all too well how dire the french situation really is. The unemployment rate is especially high among the younger one, and central planning does it’s best to be as inefficient as possible. And yes it’s not a surprise that the EZB has bought securities from the PIG states, they know without it they would be gone.

Germany has it’s own massive problems which still are unsolved. The pension promises e.g are simply terrible high and covered by anything. The taxes can be well over 50% and that’s unbearable.

So I extend my predictions with that: Within the next five years the EUR zone will not exist in it’s current shape.

The near future predictions are difficult because we do not now what will be faster the contraction of the economy or the printing of money. If we assume that contraction will prevail we should see falling stocks, falling gold till the printing press will win. After that we will see higher inflation. I predicted around 5 % within the next 3 or so years. It could be that this will take a little bit longer (but then the inflation will raise well beyond 5-7 %. That will be the last thing we remember while seeing the current governments and states collapsing. Simply because of “TOO BIG TO SURVIVE”

After that who knows?

Reading suggestion II

Do yourself a favor and run to the next library and buy or borrow. “The case for Gold”. You can see how nice big government and big money play together to harm
everyone else. You can see the history of the Greenback is a history of fraude, lies, broken promises. There was but one time where the “right” thing was done.

You ask what the “right” thing is? Well I guess then you don’t have read anything every written here 😉 The right thing it abolishing the central banks and fiat-money. Nothing will
be a better base for a sustainable way of living. Every other approach is deemed to fall, because as Heinlein has pointes it out in “the moon is a harsh mistress” Tanstaafl”.

You can see the failure in nearly every law. Politicians decide without any consideration of the associated costs. Oh indeed they always argue that it will get cheaper. But as sure as hell does not freeze over, if government intevenes it’s getting much more expensive. I suggest you just check how much money is spend in and on government activities. You can check nearly every country (all but those which have nearly gone broke) and you see the vermins are everywhere. You think you will win that race? Forget it, you will get deluded.

Just see what happens to production. Production is reglemented. Masses of bureaucrats decide what one is allowed to produce. You see the way is alway to some monopolies of the states. The biggest monopoly (with the highest harm factor) if of course the debt system (one can not talk any longer of the monetary system) . The system is the debt producing machine, and it issues money in ever increasing quantities. But again there will be pay days. And the more debt there will be the harder the impact will get. There is no way that this system can survive. It’s from ground up unsustainable. So if the foundation is wrong, everything else will crumble. The only “solution” is to prepare a well foundation. Then you can build skyscrapers and they still will “persist”.

So end the central banks and the worthless paper debt system. In this there is but no choice. Wealth never can come from debt, even if you see a ranking of billionaires, you always have to bear in mind. It’s not the have this wealth in greenbacks. They always have something of value….

A few calculations II

“This time for the debt growth rate in Germany. I cite :
“Als Zahl:! Die deutsche Statsverschuldung hat sich seit 1990 damit vervierfacht, von ”

translation the overall debt id 2 080 000 000 000. Well that is high but more impressing
we have four times the debts from just 21 years ago.

If we’d have in 21 year each year an expansion of 3.5% extra debts we just would have doubled our debts. So in fact
the debts have risen around nearly 7%. And that is “more than” ugly.

And that are “official” numbers. Not included are the to be expected pension payments for public servants. Because this is unique just to states. They do not have to pay into
some sort of pension funds. And so all the forthcoming pensions have to be paid from the current budget.

Even if the interest rates are on historical lows in nearly any developed country such kind of debt growth is “unbearable”. If we calculate with an average of 2.5% BIP growth. The economy has grown
at around 51 % but the debts have risen nearly 200%. So there is a gap and this gap will get larger and larger and the the day comes when this gap will be too big to be filled. The question is just when not
“if” any longer….

What do they think

I just will first start with 2 numbers

3 800 000 000 000

1 300 000 000 000

Now let’s see how this numbers are “related.” Let’s see
1 300 000 000 000 / 3 800 000 000 000 = 0.34211

or in per cent 34.211 %.

So what?

Well the US budget consists of 34.21% new debts.

Let me break it down for you.
You are earning 66 000 Dollar and you “spend” “100 000” Dollar.

The calculate the deficit will go down to 700 000 000 000 in 2014 (see

Let us assume a linea decrease over this 4 years so we’d have roughly 1.3 + 0.7 = 2.0 / 2 = 1.0
So overall 1 000 000 000 000 new debts over the next four years for every coming year.

The official debts of the US are nearing the 14 000 000 000 000. So we add another 4 / 14 = 28.6 % to this enourmous sum. And this are just the official figures.
Not included are every promise for retirement payments and probably a few thousand other “things.”

For just the 4 000 000 000 000 in the next 4 years the US will have to pay (assuming 5% interest) 200 000 000 000 a year. Just to get that “figure” right The German overall budget is
around 389 000 000 000. The overall interest to be paid will go up to 18 000 000 000 000 * 0.05 = 900 000 000 000

Let as assume that the budget will not grow (ha ha ha). So in 2014 the US has to pay 900 000 000 000 / 3 800 000 000 000 = 23.7 %

Nothing can grow forever and so they still face a new debts in 2014 than the end is near. It would mean the new debts of roughly 1 trillion is needed to just pay the interests. It’s absolutely impossible to bear. You can not us new debts to pay all debs for “long”. One still has to remember each year the interest raised around nearly a trillions. So something will happen. Past times show, inflation is the most likely outcome which let’s back to my My Predictions

Just see how others react on such debt avalanches: See that the is the world largest holder of governement bonds all over the world.
See some discussions about the implications at:

It’s worse than I could ever imagine. And it has started with “just” the 700 billions of Paulson…. I’ve always written against this kind of madness. But you know the deledefs know “better”….

Shadows of black

well usually the world is neither white nor black. Now it’s quite different in current politics. Ok agree the Republican have won. So what? They have also voted for all the diverse Bailout plans, especially the first one which was used to sunk 780 Billion Dollars without any effect and without any control. I wrote about it two years ago
see. e.g

Or just look around that blog for a while.

The big problem is unsustainability an as it’s name implies there is not constant unsustainable growth possible. Fact is without proper saving, investing does not work. And the repulican have not a slightest better record on wasting money. I’ve kept this:

and it’s obvious that they just were in panic mode. I expect that with all their resources at their hand, that they realize what has been the problem. Nearly none of them has. And so we do not have even grey we just have shadows of black.