Schlagwort-Archive: end of a cycle

Now it’s official

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The non-plan about a “voluntary” debt cut, is gone. Wel if you have followed this blog you know this hardly can be told to be a suprise.

At first If I’m having the bond I have the right to get my money back. It’s up to me and the debtor to figure something out if he’s not able to pay.
And there is the possibility to get an insurance about a non-paying debtor. So if I’m having the bond and such insurance. Why should I disclaim
my rights.

I swore myself some years ago never ever to buy any bond of any government any time again. And so I was out of this bonds in 2009.
So it’s should not be my business any more. But now the states decide to hand out money they to not have to other governments which
are broke. You can imagine how I feel about that. This is theft in it’s worst form. But it’s theft from governments, and then it’s not theft any more.
That’s ridiculous.

Anyway the private bond holders have said. We are not convinced and now it’s obvious Greece is broken. And the “saviors” of the other EU countries are on there way to
be broken also. Even the rating companies, finally realize that. But still they are givign most of the states something with an A in it. That’s stupid and another lie.
Fact ist all but a few countries are broke. Manys in the € zone and we do not have to talk about the US anymore. They has a debt increase over 70% in the last 3 years. They
are completly broken also. So neither of them deserves that anyones trusts them any more.

It seems that trust has gone down the drain. And that’s a good thing. I hope we’ll see the end of this Fiat-money system soon. And I wish this that those which have put us there, get their
deserved fait.

Too big to fail?

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I for my part starting to thinking that this is impossible. There’s a limit to seize in everything. I even will start betting on “too big to survive” instead.

Why do I think that… Well look at the US, the government has grown bigger every day since the 2nd world war and more and more goes through government hands. And states do not “produce” anything they are just “consuming” so more and more things are getting consumed by the ever increasing government. As we can see the government has consumed not just what they have stolen, but also what they have “borrowed”. And this now is simply “too” much, to large the debts not to fail. In short too large to survive.

The states in the EURO zone face a similar problem. The governments in every country have grown and the EU bureaucracy. So in a way there’s a level more too “consume” and not to produce.
Nearly all the EU states have too much debt. Now they want to cure the problems caused by seize with inflating the seize even more. In the whole history of nature and mankind. Nothing could grow beyond some limit. Just look back to dinosaurs. They grow bigger every generation and suddenly they collapsed and “vanished”. Every empire was destroyed AFTER it has out-grown a size which was survivable.

Nature also tells us there is alway scarcity. Lions can not survive without enough prey. The prey can not survive without enough grass. Grass can not survive without enough rain and sun. Governments can only survive with enough support from the population. There is a point of no-return where the population simply does not support government any longer. Even the most inhuman government can not fight all of their population. (All is way too much but I can’t tell where the limit is)

Check the big empires they all extend and extend and extend and finally collapsed. This is what happens if things are getting too big. Governments world-wide are way too big to survive, so are large corporations. Yes they will rule and yes they will make our life on earth hell. But finally they will break down.

Nobody know when things really got too big or start to tumble. So take this with some tons of salt. It seems the debt spiral has turned into a death sprial. You can see the time-spans where new even higher (and IMHO more absurd) figurers are mentioned. See e.g here in Euro land the costs on “saving” .. whomever. It has started with around 300 billions. and now with new leverages we’re talking about 2 trillions. This increase just happened in a year. Do you remember Paulson, he wanted to start with 750 billions and now we are way beyond a few trillions. This raise has happened in just 3 years. So you see the nearer we come to the present the higher the figures. With rates of growth well beyond 1000% a year. In the case of the EU we have a raise of roughly 1.7 trillions that is an increas from 1.4 / 0.3 = 466,67 %. Still it does not even cover all the debt just the debt of a state like Italy. Now unfortunately there is also Spain, Portugal, Fraance and last but not least Germany. ….. If we just look at the debts of the biggest countries in Euro land we are talking about 7- 10 trillions of debt. And well the less likely it will be that they will pay their debts. So no EUR land will not survive in that form simple because it has outgrown it’s seize of survival

Either the US or the EUro countries will break down, before I bet we see some other developing countries to face their doom. Too much money from EUR countries and US countries was put there. If they start contracting to pay their obligations, those countries will be without a chance. But it does no help. Assume that Greece will default on their debts, then this debts are simply gone. And one of the other bank will face deep troubles (Currently it seems the french banks are quite high exposed to risks resulting on Greek) It could be no surprise that Sarkozy tries massivly to find new lender. I guess he knows all too well how dire the french situation really is. The unemployment rate is especially high among the younger one, and central planning does it’s best to be as inefficient as possible. And yes it’s not a surprise that the EZB has bought securities from the PIG states, they know without it they would be gone.

Germany has it’s own massive problems which still are unsolved. The pension promises e.g are simply terrible high and covered by anything. The taxes can be well over 50% and that’s unbearable.

So I extend my predictions with that: Within the next five years the EUR zone will not exist in it’s current shape.

The near future predictions are difficult because we do not now what will be faster the contraction of the economy or the printing of money. If we assume that contraction will prevail we should see falling stocks, falling gold till the printing press will win. After that we will see higher inflation. I predicted around 5 % within the next 3 or so years. It could be that this will take a little bit longer (but then the inflation will raise well beyond 5-7 %. That will be the last thing we remember while seeing the current governments and states collapsing. Simply because of “TOO BIG TO SURVIVE”

After that who knows?

What are the signs

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that we nearing us an end of a bubble/burst cycle?

I wished I knew. So I just can speculate. At first it seems the debts were piled up higher than ever before in “peaceful” history. Peaceful in the sense that there is no war in Europe. But maybe I’m just too optimistic about the war stuff, maybe one has to admit it’s war between the deledefs and us. But well we currently do not shoot one another (but don’t ask me how long that will last).

There a a few other signes that maybe this time the end of this cycle is nearing. Gold still raises, slow but steady. And the worst fiat-currencies (EUR and US) are declining as well. I know there is not “real” alternative country on this earth, basing their economy on values, but well there are worse and a little better than worse fiat-money currencies. However we also see raising prices of commodities. The raises are not that striking in the “non-core” inflation area. But non-core inflation is kind of “a little bit pregnant”. It’s something that simply “does” not exist. We see devaluation races while the central bank go wild printing money. And so yes I think the prices show this devaluation.

Interesting also that the politicians are just cycling around each other and try hard to avoid any acknowledge of their population. You can see this in the last G8 meeting, which one just can describe with one word: spooky. They just were placed behind fences and the executive was closing down everything else. There you could see that they are not hampered by any sort of reality. It really was one of the days, one could see how they are not “working” for the public. At least not what I understand under public.

We’ve seen remarkable actions of men in north africa. They did not have learned much from our faults, but they managed to drive away their current deledefs which is a good thing. But I’m afraid they will follow the next duper, to some stupid thing. I hope I will be 100% wrong on this, but I do not see that politicians currently “leading” have done that much good. But may be “this time is different?” I can’t tell.

The actions of the federal banks seem to be desperation in disguise. They tell us “Everythign is under control” but I would not believe that for a second. So currently they try to prolong the suffering, but in the end we know “we are all dead” and Fiat money will die if not these days or months than someday in the future. You can not have “money” as debt. It’s one of the biggest chams ever in history. We are trying to sneak our way to wealth. That does not work. And devaluation of currencies is the surest way into doom. There is not exception to this rule. The “ruling” people, start issuing less valuable money and use their guns to “convince” us to take the more bad money on face to “better” alternatives. And I’m afraid there is never a “this time is different” in this area. The currently leading people do want to “lead” in the future too and so they do everything they possibly can to keep “their” system running. And so we never ever will see that they try not to fight what they probably will call “the market”. They will always attack those pointing out their lies….

And I ask you frankly. How can one believe that devils would to anything not to tantalize their “underlings”?