Archiv für den Monat: September 2008

What’s wrong with this picture?

From http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080930/financial_meltdown.htm

I cite:
“Because the government would be purchasing troubled assets and selling them once the market recovers,” he said, “it is likely that many of the assets would go up in value over time. Ultimately, we expect that much – if not all – of the tax dollars we invest will be paid back.”

If it’s likely to make a profit why shouldn’t everyone take the chance? Or at least most of them, it’ old good doing “buy low, sell high”. So let me say if the stuff bounces back why must it be bought from governement?

This is IMHO as clear, that he does not even see this contradiction. There are also a few assumptoins:
1) market will recover (well somehow, someday it surely will)
2) they get the assets below their value, and can wait long enough to wait for their recovery (let me ask why can’t Mr Paulson as private person wait for recoverey. If he’s spend 100 Mio he would not even notice that much less money. Does he own a few planes, boats etc.
3) it also implied that there will be some losses (may be/ may be not)
4) but buying them overprices would give those having collected this fould credits a premium. What should prevent them trying the same again?

I’m sorry but His Insanity simply does not get this things

Look and read careful

Who is not going to start blaming whom? What are the rules for the elected. Do they just have to sit and nodding to whatever idiocy comes along. Who has lied to the parliament, it was Mr Insanity itself. Who declared that the Iraque war is too all good? Who has driven down all sane budget rules?

It was His Insanity. And who has followed nearly all in congres… Who has stand up against him?
No one, now the may see the light at the end of the tunnel. The Republicans and His Insanity, are accountable for that mess. Now, he got what he has deserved since at least five years.

So I ask you watch closely who’s not blaming whom, keep that in mind and see how the same people have done in the past…

Check yourself

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/30/opinion/30brooks.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

Obviously leadership means just throwing out money to his guy. I wrote about why I’m against it and it is no plan at all it’s not doing anything to cure it’s just to borrow all sorrow under a mountain of money. Leadership != Money, so if David Brooks does not get it he’s in quite some trouble.

Don’t beat a dead horse?

It’s dead it won’t stand up and run afresh. Don’t mess around with the failout plan any longer, take another way. If I read they are planning to “refresh” the b(f)ailout plan I start shivering again. See my other entry on how I’d think you should proceed.

B(F)ailout failed

Well step one was a good one, but where are the alternatives. Just saying “No” is not easy but not mind-bending also. So how to get out that mess. I strongly suggest to discuss drastic steps. At first it must be stated clearly who has gained most during this bubble. That were in fact quite a few but in the end it “stranded” in the hand of the very rich. They got much reacher, than ever before. The money taken out by incompentent Middle , upper and highest management was way out of line. So
if you follow that, thos who have gained the most should not be taken and “give” back. The proposal of Senator Sanders would be one alternative.

Howerver everyone taking part in this Monopoly, should take their share. So this means also those having loans they could not afford, have to feel this. But also those whow have sold them this “credits”. They must have seen that many can not affort it. So get to them and let them pay also.

Then you need an “american” solution. It’s clear that you can not go the chinese way or maybe even some “european” way. Especially in Germany and France the politics stil have way too much to say and decide. So you can not just go and b(f)ailout everyone. The LB way is harsh but they have taken their chance and they loosed. However the only thing you should concentrate on is letting those not having spend in this monopoly their money. So you must not look after foul credits but those “savings” people have done. If they spend it in falling bank, well that’s bad luck, every investement can to wrong. Not every idea turns out to have some value, failure must be allowed. I’m aware the line between failure and deception is a very thin one. But betting on ever growing hous prices is way beyond failure it’s deception.

So what other things can you do. Obviously you need not worry to much about Wall Street, they have had their fun, now let them having their hangover. See how much decption was there and you’ll cover quite a mass of the losses. But now what’s left for the Governement. The answer is :
Spend money on your infra-structure, spend money on your people. As everyone knows the infrastructure is terribly wrotten, this was money spend ages ago, but then let down by givign them away. Take them back and build them anew. Ten thousands of bridges are wrotten, the streets are bumpy. Then start getting away from oil, see that you get a functioning railroad and get a functionaing local traffic system. Do encourage people to go by bike, or maybe scooter. You space is sparse, you can not affort just let it be used up by 3 tons of metal. Spend money on education, teach children and grown-ups. Make it’s your primary task to get rid of debts instead of piling layers of debts over other layers of debt. Just imagine you hadn’t all the debt, how much could you spare. All the interest could be not just be to whomever owns the stuff (which you’ve spread all over the world) but things which.

Do start on a sustainable economy. You can not use the whole world as your “money lender”, someday you’ve to pay back, Ask yourself if the billions spend on unsustainalbe stuff really makes any thing better? Get rid of your enormous spendings on weapons, defense against weapons. Forget your star-wars. Spend on thing preserving life, not on things destroying it..

Get back to “civilized” manners, All Guantamos and “other” ways of torture must driven back. Those having initiated that must take the responsbility and it would not harm them to see jail from the inside.

So use this breakdown, and don’t repeat your former errors.

If you’re willing to spend 700 Mrd then do it with horse sense.

Stand up take the banner for freedom and democracy. Say no to dictatorship, say no do torture simply learn to say not to quite a few other things. Stand up now or … fail

Next Failouts?

Netherlands/Belgium/Luxemburg

Hypo Real Estate

at least here the banks having started this gambling take responsibility.

Now according to some comments from Paulson, McCain, Merkel, Ackermann you name them.
“There is no problem”…..

Passt scho

Bis auf das folgende Fehler im Ergebnis (SPD 19 Prozent zuviel, CSU ca 43,7 Prozent zuviel) geht die Wahl in Bayern schon in Ordnung. Leider ist die Wahl in Österreich voll daneben. SPÖ zu viel, ÖVP zu viel, FPÖ viel zu viel und BZÖ viel zu viel.

Und die Interviews am Wahlabend waren selbst im Verhältnis zu sonst noch schlechter. Wie heißt es doch so schön “Schlimmer geht immer” — pass scho’

Add that

the Failout plans looks for around 700 MRD, but still and without any word
another 25 Mrd were given to the GM, Ford, credits for low consumption cars.

Guess what this car managers are not able to manage also. Their business is to build cars people want to buy. They failed and got b(f)ailed out also.

You got the smell?

Read it, try to comprehend it

Bad, the link is gone, so be it. No idea how to get it back. Sorry guys…

Yes Paulson and Bernake surely knew what’s going on. Their only plan is to avoid that, and read the fine print “it’s the end of your econmic system”. Let’s assume it’s true. Then the system has proved to be unsustainable now. It does not mean it will show this unstustanability later. But guess one enlarges it’s life artificially . Will the end be more merciful?

This plan does nothing for a softer landing, it’s just prolonging the suffering. If at least one could see some effort addressing the base problem: too much money creation. Is there anything provided for limiting it? What’ll happen if banks has to back up their loans with much more own capital. Even a larger distrust could be suspended. The leverage in all the loans and assets is it what has lead to this plight. The leverage must be broken. The bailout-plan has nothing in it for that. So it’s not a plan it contains no “healing” component. It’s making the same error over and over again just with “more hot air”.

Now let’s see. If the system would be fundamentally fine. Why the hell can it not cope without this “money infusion”? The 700 Mrd are nothing in comparisan to the “real” money held in the system. How comes that this system can not even deal with less than a few per cent of what they deal with every day?

Go your way

You won’t get any help from politicians nor any of the manager bastards. So bail out, make your own business, or if you must work for this bastards, make your personal bail-out. Get rid of your debt, let everyone laugh at you. You know whom will laugh last. If you are going to buy any of their arguments you have surrenderd to a slaves live.

So make your personal bail-out. The sooner the better….

Wo sind sie?

Die ach so hochgelobten und gut bezahlten Manager. Warum liest man nur über Pläne der Politiker und keine handelnden Manager?

Sieht so aus als könnten die Versarger nicht sondern schauen wie die Kaninchen auf die Schlange.

Manager = Feiglinge

sieht so aus

Verantwortung heuchln solange man selber mi ein paar Millionen nach Hause geht, und wegschieben wenn daneben geht.

Die nächsten US Präsidenten

“Zum dem 700-Milliarden-Dollar-Rettungsplan für notleidende Banken befragt, sagte Obama: “Wir haben den genauen Wortlaut noch nicht gesehen.” McCain bekräftige immer wieder, oberstes finanzpolitische”

von http://de.biz.yahoo.com/27092008/36/politik-obama-mccain-uneins-irak-fin.html

Is’ schon klar, sie haben ja nur mit am Tisch gesessen, da gabe es sicherlich keine Unterlagen.

Bloss den Kopf unten halten, andere “verrecken” lassen und dann die Lorbeeren einheimsen.

Sicherlich waren Obama und McCain nicht im Senat, hat man irgendetwas von Ihnen gehört oder gelesen als es darum ging His Insanity entgegenzutren?

Monopoly

Was müssen meine Augen lesen:
http://de.biz.yahoo.com/27092008/299/unitymedia-deutsches-kabelnetz-unter-dac.html

Klar das Monopol in NRW haben Sie schon, hat ja in den letzten Jahren nur für eine Steigerung um 60 % bei den Gebühren gereicht, ist natürlich echt zu wenig….

Unbedingt lesenswert

Gehen Sie zum Kiosk und holen sich das neueste Manager Magazin, gerade auch dann wenn Sie Manager aus dem Weg gehen wollen.

S. 114 “Zocken bis zum Ende Rezession, Der größte Bankenkrach seit Generationen könne eine Weltwirtschaftskrise führen. Übertrieben? Leider nicht. Die Regierungen der wichtigsten Länder sind dabei, die Fehler der Vergangenheit zu wiederholen”

Vermissen Sie irgend etwas? Ich schon, sehe ich einen Hinweis darauf wie es denn zum Bankenkrach kam? Sehe ich auch nur eine Wort darüber, “wir haben Mist gebaut” (mit wir wäre jetzt die Wirtschaft gemeint. Nein. Wie meinen Sie wird das bei den “Wirtschaftsleuten” ankommen?

Der Artikel geht dannn weiter und auf S. 122 “Ein Buch zum Thema aus der mm-Redaktion”.

Es geht munter weite auf 124. “Es ist eine Schweinerei”…. Tenor , alle wußten doch man braucht schwarze Kassen da und dort und was weiß ich wo. Wer hat Ihnen denn die Pistole auf die Brust gesetzt und gesagt. “Ihr müsst in diesem oder jenen Land Aufträge machen?”
Man lese auch speziell die Aussagen über Herrn Pierer in diesem Artikel

und vergleiche mit dem folgenden
Mit am Interessantesten ist es dann auf S. 136 ff. “Mit einem Bein im Knast”. Speziell erhellend S. 142, ich zitiere: “Doch Siemens Chef Peter Löscher und .. Gerhard Cromme vermieden jedes Risiko, stoppten die Anwälte nicht – und zahlten weiter. Rund 770 Millionen Euro habe Siemens ….

Man stelle sich vor eine Firma wie Siemens mit ein paar Tausend Leuten allein im Controlling, ist nicht in der Lage ohne auswärtige Hilfe einen Überblick über die eigene Firma zu geben!

Jetzt rede noch einmal jemand über Inkompetenz…., Heuchelei und Verlogenheit. Ich denke man weiß ziemlich genau die größten Heuchler, nein, sie sitzen nicht nur in den Wirtschaftseliten und nein sicherlich nicht nur in unser Politikereliten….

Wer bezahlt denn die 770 Millionen, sicher nicht Herr Löscher und Herr Cromme. Es ist allehöchste Eisenbahn, die Manager auf annehmbares Maß zurückzubringen und das geht nur indem man die Rechte der Eigentümer stärkt. Trotz all der “bösen” Staatsanwälter da draußen, von wievielen wirklich angemessenen Strafen liest man denn bei diesen “Managereliten”.

That’s the trouble with lies

This is the trouble with lies. You lie once, and will not loose creditability, twice and you loose a quite a bit more but thrice?

And then you fall back to the same tactics. If not all agree in you lie ? everything will get messed up. Unfortunatly His Insanity has lied more than thrice, and he absolutly makes an impression on not having any clues about reality. And Paulson has alway played down sorrows, “It’ s all ok”, after the first round of lies (no bailouts) again “everything is under control” then comes another bailout and then you hear (that was the last time we’d jume for help) and not three days later he has come up whith this IMHO still braind-dead plan. And always it’s treated as if there isn’t an alternative.

This is how during second 2nd world war soldats were send to be slaughtered and it’s the same in Iraque. If you do not search for alternatives, you surely won’t find them.

They’ve lied to often and that makes it unbelievable difficult to “believe” them once again.
I’d give both some sort of credit if they would put most of what they own to “that plan”. And I’d ask everyone which is for that plan, doing the same. But strange enough that’s not heard from anyone. So how convinced are they “beeing right”, not that much.

Paulsons efforts to get free hand, without any “regulative”, speaks to much of nepotism (especially to this clueless banking collegues), and believing in their risk management seems to be a very bad idea also. So AFAIKT, all the “managers” in charge (for this crumbling corporations) must either agree to step in with their whole property to fix their errors or
give back most of the money they got during the last years, step back and let others try to fix that messs. That would be without example in history, but it seems really strong things must happen to stop this mess.

Even 700 Mrd $ will not make it…..

Maybe not that bad a day for us all

If it’s true that McCain has stand up against ths brain-dead bailout. Then this will be a good day.
I feel the base rule, the banks have to buy insurance a pleasant suprise, but it won’t work. They simple can not affort it, at least to market rules. So buyout of JP Morgan buying Washington Mutal seems to be a more sound way. But see the figures and you can see how deep the trouble really is.

However back to McCain if that really has happened (heresay), then someone in the proper party is stand up against “His Insanity”. Pray that Bush legistlative does not get through and pray that someone comes up with a thing which one could name a more decent plan. The Bailout plan isn’t it

Very true

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/Economy/story?id=5887486&page=1

Bush (named His Insanity) has shown over and over again he has not clue about anything but much more beliefs and he’s so self-containing to understand anything beyond. “I’m right….”

Quite funny

Found at
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=5879591&page=1

“This entire proposal is about benefiting the American people,” Paulson said, “because today’s fragile financial system puts their economic well being at risk.”

I wonder whom he meant with the American people, the politicians having backed up everything from His Insanty. Fed who has thrown out money with both hands and feets, Investement bankers have sucked out every cent they could.

It’s not a plan at all

The Bailout Plan is just anything but sound. It’s driving insanity to a maximum.
So here are some “fast shots”. One must conclude that this disaster has been benefitted comparable few in the last years. Well agreed people not able to have housing, suddenly get one.
They lost them because houses cost dearly, as everyone owning one just can subscribe. It’s as obviously that loans were granted just on the premist that the house would pay itself in a few years, riskless. This promise definitivls was criminal. So usually you try to get those criminals. This is higly unlikly to happen. Maybe the investigations will show up something, but I do not think it really will harm but a few.

So we know have people with debts around they could not bear. They were not driven to take them but they did, I’m sorry but if you do errors you have to pay for it… Those having sold that we not interested in their faits, but they obviously have lied, and sort of pressed on. So if you say to someone jump of the house and this one can not judge what’ll happen? Who is than responsible?
It’s a bit oversimplified of course, but it’s obviously that those having took the loans, had not idea what’ll happen. the promise was they will get rich quick. It’s snow-balling system and partly self-fullfilling as long as enough get into that avalanche.

Both sides were guilty, in Germany we have some guards against that they are call “sittenwidrige” Verträge. They are void from the beginning. I don’t know if the US have something comparable, if not that law must get into their laws also.

So in fact I’d argue this could turn to work to safe the credit loanes here. I’d suggest any lawyer in the US to check for such things.

With that we’d have at least a handle to let them feel their reponsibility.

Now let’s go on further up the ladder. Someone must have back up this worthless loans, and they gained from that probaly with high payments. They driven their agents to sign and bring in such contracts. So that can be seen as asking someone to do criminal things. This is chargeable.

I think this could be the leverage we can follow up the ladder. So the middle agents were backed up a level higher but the level below was “criminal” so, I guess one can make them all chargeable. Now they’ve taken out the money on their own, of course they spend them in all kinds of things, but surely there must be something of value behind it. I’d argue it’s not unfair to take them away most of what they’ve taken out.

The backed up a snow-ball system and I guess this can be charged for in Germany as in the US.
This should IMHO be a handle to get back the taken out money, to quite some extend.

I don’t know if that really works, but it’s one idea.

My next suggestion to the system would be that banks which business it is to lend money, must back up their given credits which much more “own” money. This will lower the leverage effect and surely will calm down any speculative bubble, based on too “easy” money. I also would consider not real cap in payments but a cap above which you will get held repsonsible, if such a bubble bursts. I surely would ask anyone beeing owner, to allow throwing out that much money just from the management. Guess what’ll happen if the money has not got into the hands of just a handfuls “managers” but shareholders?

The responsibility of the central banks are as clear, and those are driven by the politicians. So fact is there was too much money on the market and this comes in the end from the Fed. AFAIKT is the Fed under “polictical” control. We can not have something over the laws, so the laws must be changed that, to give the fed the highest degree of autonomy. It must be forbidden that the current leading party, can demand “support” for whatever they deem appropriate. They should just be bound to
keep Inflation rates low.

This has turned out to be work best, we’ve proven it correct for 50 years of West Germany, and it’s the all-above rule for the EZB.

So in fact I would go for laws, fasten the rights of shareholders. I also would not allow managers payments in form of options. Because in this case they have much less risk to bear. If business is running well, you get extremly much from it, but your risk is at an absolute minimum.

So the leverage just works for the managers and can’t work against them. Just imaging the leverage of options is 1:10 and much larger. So you’ve to spend 1 EUR but get back 10 EUR and the most you can loose is this EUR. So no I would disallow any payment in form of options. The problem is that managment can decide what should be the base of this options plan and you can make it that low that it just needs cautious working to get into the profitable sight.

In the end I think one thing is the most promising. Giving more rights to the owners and much less to managment. It has run the other way round for the last decades and better be driven back
The other desparate change is that the central bank must get the only guideline on “keeping the money value stable”. Just think what an inflation rate of let’s say 10 % means. It means within 7 years a trillion is worth 500 billions, so it’s an easy way for long term debtor as unfortunatly the democracis seem to be. With both approaches one can do much more to rebuild accountability….

So here’s my alternative plan. Do whatever you can to make everyone accountable, for his/her doing. Do not allow anyone just profiting….

So the Bailout Plan goes complete against it, and so do not accept it.

This speaks

Somwhere in
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080925/financial_meltdown.html

“It’s a tough sell to most of our members,” Rep. Tom Davis, R-Va., said after a closed-door meeting with Paulson and Bernanke. “It’s a terrible plan, but I haven’t heard anything better.”

They have no plan, and not the courage to figure out something else. Believe that, the only “plan” of democratic parties is abolishing itself in the course of “no other plan”…

I guess it may be a good time for all Amecicans to abolish their congress, and get back to democracy. The suggestion getting rid of democratic parties sounds very reasonable suddenly

One may not go with all the Senator Sanders suggests, but at least he has some suggestion, and it’s much better and much more fair than anything you can expect for the “Bushies”

Watch closely what the candidates do!

I just can suggest anyone to watch the actions and speeches done by the candidates for president.
None, has come up with some own suggestion. McCain even says. “Let’s put aside politiques”. Can anyone explain it to me what politics than means? Are the politicians just responsible for deciding “unimportant” thngs? And see how Obama ask for the same. “Let’s work together”. Should that look like the decision to go to war?

How comes none of them speak up clealy and state. I’m not supporting this and that and suggest instead something else?

No the dare not come out of their defense. Unfortunatly McCain has no obvious defense. He can not stand behind this suggestion he can not stand against it. How long is McCain Republican?
Obamas positon is as “helpless”. He dares not to let down the economy, and he surely can not opt for this plan as is. If he should win then it would be his task to cope with this surely way beyond a few trillions debacle (who believes 700 Mrd, will make it?)

However now that the could state their ideas precisely, you don’t hear from them. There’s no plan, they are busy with bashing the other for less “delicate” things.

I have to conclude none of them really has some backbone. I hoped it’ll be better with a new president…. I may be terrible wrong

Mr Bush up for another round of FUD

Take a look at:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080925/bush_markets.html

I dare to ask. How can anyone believe anything from this proved liar? This nail to the coff of democracy. Having been in charge for too long and just getting out in just 2 months. He and his burocrats, have run the US in the ground. And congress was not that “active” to hold him back. They surounded to this FUD, Fraud, Lies. I can not understand that no-one dares to really put him into court.

Just this sentence:
“Bush stressed he was reluctant to put taxpayer”

is a straigtforware lie. He hasa put taxpayer money in everything he deemed “ok” The price tag (just money) for the Iraque war reaches the 700 Mrd till end of next year or so. All for the “safety” of Americans? How many have been slaugthered in Iraque? How many sorrows has he brought over at least two countries? Who has asked for dictatorship-like privileges?

Who has run round and round of tax deductions for just a handful people?

I’m afraid it’ll be not enough

If one sees how much in debt each US citizen is, people must be aware that 700 MRD will be simple not enough. We’ve to see also how much worth houses are if loans busted. The price is that high as people are willing to sell it for. if building a house has costed let’s say 100 000 then that was it’s worth one build. Howerver the money for it is gone, and now the debt can not be paid. So you have to write down this price to whatever you find acceptable. The difference to 100 000 is a loss. Now this isn’t a big thing if that happens a few times, but if it happens on mass, then nothing can stop this avalanche crumbeling down. Impossible in theoretical and practical means. If you look at the figures of Fay and Fred Mac you’ll see the loans exceed 5 Billions.(Trillion in US speack) 700 Mrd are a bit above 10% of that value. Howerver let us try to estimate how much worth the houses are. Let us assume that at least a bit money was “ones” own. So let’s say 20 % that’s around 1 Billion. So the housing are “worth” let’s day roughl 6 Billions. (I know it’s too low but let’s just take it for some calculations) This was the prices the lend the money for. let’s assume that 2 Billion were spend on the mortgages in the last 6 years. During that time the prices have risen by 85 per cent. Let’s calculate the value that money has had 7 years ago with an inflation rate of 3 % we have
2 / 1.03^7 = 1,62 Billions, we must also take into account that hardly anyone will buy for that prices so let’s assume a discount at around 30 % then we have 2,11 billions for the costs of the debt for the houses of this large failures. This alone is 3 time as much as the asked 700 Mrd.

And guess what that just covers a fraction of the real loans. So I’d argue with a quite high probability the 700 Mrd will be just the tip of the icebrg. You have to see that the greedy manages have put everything to put out risk on different areas. So we can be 100% sure that the mess us magnitudes larger than implied by this incredible 700 Mrd $. Now say something about throwing good money after bad money.

I just can hope I’ve made some error in my calculations, otherwise the devastating “news ” is : “Game over”.

The only “signs” that is may be a bit less worse is that, the bad credits were spread all over the world. So in fact everyone having invested in this kind of stuff, really is “busted”. Don’t expect to see much from that money back. It’s time to prepare for even worse times…

small additon

small Addition to:
http://fdominicus.blogspot.com/2008/09/there-is-some-sanity-left.html
http://www.sanders.senate.gov/news/record.cfm?id=303404
“According to Sanders, the richest 0.1 percent now earn more money than the bottom 50 percent of Americans, and the top 1 percent own more wealth than the bottom 90 percent. The wealthiest 400 people in our country saw their wealth increase by $670 billion while Bush has been president.”

Other suggestions about more regulations etc, are not the right way. Accountability is what must be increased and there’s one easy means for that. Those monopoly players have to be liable to a large extend with their private property. They must be aware that their money is at stake. And suddenlyl a lot of the excesses surely would vanish, suddendly the old fashioned way of getting richer would be “earn it”.