Schlagwort-Archive: Bubble

Do you like Thriller?

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With an open end? Or are a fan of horror movies? Now I’ve found something for you:
http://wallstreetpit.com/13428-total-us-savings-rate-lowest-in-recorded-history

Do you feel the cold of death? Or do you fell hells heat? Well whatever it is pray that this chart changes soon.

Or if you are against government as I am pray that the State goes bankrupt. It will be on of the ugliest things you ever will imagine, But then “markt” will be the only
thing left to survive. I just can tell you see the problems we Germans had. And we got a really good revival. But now we are following the US to our own bankrupt.

Yes savings are now starting and yes that is good, but still there is too much debt in the developed countries. What will happen if the money will be used for buying things?
You can see the assets are rising but are they raising because of good business? That’s the question.

I found two very different videos on youtube about it:

and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRV_b2AFnKw&feature=related

We must also keep in mind the Fed has pumped literally tons of money into the economy. They name it the quantitative easing. But the Fed has accepted securirties which do not deserve that name.
And the banks surely have not lend overly much of the money but the bought bonds and I bet assets. So a question not answered to met yet is. How much of the raising stock prices is due to money looking for profitable investment and how much is really driven by more profits from the corporations. AFAIKT is the unemployment rate still raising. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nsehkDwxBA&feature=related

A profitable recovery looks a bit different to me.

So I’m afraid the recovery still seems to be debt driven and not profit driven. So in my judgment peter Schiffer may lie but there still is no recovery but the money is driving up all the prices. So the higher stock markets are currently bubbled and not sustainable. I don’t know if this will change the next months. But because of all the hampering of free markets I’m not very optimistic. And I just can see the signs that inflation is a problem and this of course is due to the insane printing of money. But the FED never ever will admit that. It’s everything else but the loose money policy of the FED. It’s the greedy bankers, the speculators and everything else. And even if it’s worse now it would be even more worse without all the “actions” That’s the fed way and you can not reject it. The unemployment may be even higher without all the interventions and so they are “good”. But is that really true?

I’m afraid it will get worse and worse, there comes the day the bonds will mature and then? There will come the day where the asset bubbles will bust…. I just can repeat myself, don’t trust government. If you do you’ll be among the first losers… Do not buy anything but values yet. Do not buy any bond of the US or you’ll be sorry. That’s my opinion, feel free to decide differently.

to bubble or not to bubble?

4 Antworten

this is the question. The Dax is up around 1000 points that are roughly 16,67 %, let’s see what the Dow has done:
up around 1000 points also that are roughly 9.6%. Well let’s see Gold: roughly up 300 EUR from 750 EUR beginning of the year, that are
gains of around 40%. Now is Gold a Bubble? Well it very depends on your point of view. Unfortunately neither the FED nor the EZB, show us a graph of the
money expansion and so we must deduct it from second sources:
http://www.goldreporter.de/wachstumssprung-bei-geldmenge-m3/news/545/ states that M3 grows was beyond 13% in 2004!!. So with all the buying of bonds, one can assume that M3 has grown beyond that limit in 2010. So we never will know really. How much money was generated out of the blue during the last three years and what’s the development of the prices. It could be that gold is a bubble, but it seems more likely that money was bubbled much more. So if we just assume a growth of 8% of M3 in 2009, and 2010. We should have seen a raise in the BIP of at least that much. This has not happened, and so the question persists where was this money spend? It seems very likely the distrust to paper-money has driven many people to buy sliver, gold, platinum.

Now we can bet on the next years. There is not strengthening of money policy in view. Bernanke just wanted to buy another few bonds at or around 600 Billions. in the EU the discussion is on to introduce “Euro bonds”. That are bonds backed up by the EU, backed up by different countries. This suggests that money supply will be plenty the forthcoming future. So I’d think we see another raise in all kinds of assets. (real ones not that funny junk bonds of any EU country or the US).

Where will this bubble end? Well we have learned in 2008 that there is no one-way street to higher prices. And we all know that even the sky has it’s limits. So either the central banks start contracting money or the bubble will burst with a loud bang. I’M very pessimistic that the central banks start acting responsible. I bet they fill follow the lead of the Japanese central bank and government, which now try for more than 10 years printing out there way of their recession. The result is that Japan has the highest rate of debts of all developed countries. And still it does not work. No-one is surprised but the Deledefs and it seem they believe the only way out of debt is collecting more debt..

Well this will not work and if the money bubble will burst, you hopefully have something of real value to trade or pay with. Gold is but one instrument. So I expect an extra raise of the gold price. And I expect it to inflate even stronger the more the central banks try to print us out of this crisis. If the gold prices starts cantering, all bets are off.

I really am curious which country first will draw the correct conclusions. The country which will end this fiat-money madness, will gain everything, people, money wealth. All others will end in misery and this misery has meant war in the past….

Inflating new bubbles

2 Antworten

Unfortunately nothing was learned. As you may have registered the stock markets are going up. Well the suprise is not that large. There is so much funny mulitcolored paper available. Once it was known as curreny but it’s does not have any worth. So Gold is up over 80% in two years. And the stock have gained nearly as much. Currently you can even use this funny paper too buy houses for quite less of it. That bubble has burst around 2 years or so ago. Now the next bubble is raising, maybe it’s time to get rid of as much of this colorul paper as possible and take something no-one can raise artificially (at least not to a large extent). I propose investing in land. See that it’s fertile. The day will come where you’ll have to pay too much colorful paper to get full.

How it will come to that day. Well the argument of the deledefs and bureaucrats will be: “We had no choice…”