Schlagwort-Archive: wishful thinking

von Mises run

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well yes there are no good news. There are currently just bad and worse news.

Now it’s the spanish banks, another 100 billion. I wonder from where that money comes. And you know the answer. It comes from new debts and this debts
have to be beard by the tax payers. Oh yes they won’t honestly higher the tax immediately, but the invoice will come. And it’s always those who have and live within
their financial limits, which have to pay. I guess it will be as usually. The inflation will be driven up, the tax is driven up and those not paying taxes will not even recognize, that’s somebody get’s robbed.

The different loosers in the different countries are cheering another looser. Really they tell, what a good thing that Spain takes the EFSF money. Well you can see it’s not the idea of market which prevails. It’s from a to z socialism pure. And every socialist country get bankrupt within around a live span of a man.

And again the best safety net for the savers would have been sound money, and there you have it. The last we get is sound money. We’ll see more money printing, more card houses of debts. I know it’s stupid, people with at least a slight idea on economic thinking know it’s stupid and yet those who know will get overturned by the majority. And as we can see e.g in France the majority just is stupid as wood. I really wonder how the French think Hollande will pay for all “his” promises. They really must think the state is a money spender. And they simply do not get it that it’s robbery which keeps the states afloat. One should not wish bad for others, but I feel it is needed that they suffer under exact the conditions they seem to prefer.

And it’s now starting to get really worse. The banks are bankrupt and the states a bankrupt, and the stupid people still believe the state can steer anything. They are steered and it will show, and the more they deny the facts (money has to be earned) the more devastating the outcome.

If I could give you but one suggestion

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on how to escape the greedy hands of states. It would be:


Don’t buy any bonds of states.

This is what you can decide, an no state can force you to do it. If you think the bonds of states are safe. You really do not have lived and read anything the last
4 years. Then I just can tell you, go ahead, buy your “safe” state Bonds.

Anyway if you have seen the actions of the last few years, you have no choice. Any bond you buy is a contract which harms our neigbbor and not the state. You can beleive me there
can be not better thing to do than harm states. They will send you to war with a smile. They will name you “hero” if you are killed. Words are cheap in this regard.

So first guideline for investing. Don’t believe states, and don’t give them your money voluntarily.

Let’s check

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how is our race to the bottom doing?

  • Greece is on it’s way to yet another default.
  • If my calculations are right (see: http://fdominicus.blogspot.de/2012/05/ist-blodheit-ansteckend.html) then Spain has to get new debt of 33 -¢ for every Euro they spend. New debts (officiall numbers) around 34 billions. Now they have to offer 6.5 % for new money. How “unfair”
  • Extra implicit debt of the USA 200 trillions. That seems to get a tough one

In short the race is almost run. Currently leading Greece, Spain, Italy. But the followers are not that far of. And what do we get from our politicians? “Everything’s under contro” and yet (strange enough) the new suggestions for “solving” the problems are following in a minutes distance. Could it be that “panic” time is starting? All the suggestions just complete the mess. More power, more debt and more regulation. That’s all there is, be it in Euro Land. USA or China. Just see some newspapers or probably better blogs….

How deep is the trouble (Greece)?

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Well it’s difficult these times to get some non mainstream reports on Greece. It’s impossible to find much critique in any german newspaper or magazine.

But there are few side remarks borrowed at the end of some articles sometimes, and one can get a little bit more infromaton on the Neue Züricher Zeitung. (Which fails unfortunatly miserable on Swiss affairs)

So this are the information I gathered. Today in the BNN. The greek government has calculated with 30 billions extra taxes, now is was reported. The supposed payers are owned by the Greece state and most of them are bankrupt!!! 30 billions means that this money simply is lacking in the “income” of the Greece state. With the information from here:
http://www.focus.de/finanzen/news/staatsverschuldung/griechenland-hat-ein-bruttoinlandsprodukt-bip-schuldenkrise-kommentar_2542983.html
Greece Gdp 240 billons
Income (taxes) 75 billions
Expenses 105 billions
new debts30 billions.

Well just double the debts with this, and we are in the region of new debts well above 20%, of the GDP. Which still is shrinking. If anyone can see this as sustainable, I’m afraid he should see ones doctor.

Another information from the NZZ stated. That even after a year, the government does not know how many really do work in government or government owned corporations. Now this is a another bummer.
Add to this that the calculate with more than 25% of the working population, is working for government (currently known) and you see how deep their troubles are.

In fact all the figures they’ve come up with are not even guess work, just wishful thinking. So m conclusion is Greece is completly messed up. There is no way that they even will be able to pay more than 20% or of their debt. So in fact the 300 billions of debt must be depreciated to maybe 30 or so billions. So a definitive loss for the creditors of 90%. I’ll bet neither Sarkozy nor Merkel will mention it. So fact is the money we gave to Greece is lost.

My conclusion is harsh but simple: “Game over”. There’s no way Greece can get out of this without a terrible loss of anything. I’m afraid poverty will be the logical consequence. Because the young Greeks won’t find any work in Greece, they will emmigrate. And the GDP will shrink even more. Because of the irresponsibility of the “leading” Greeks, we’ll see what may happen to us. During the great depression, states do not had have anything like that many debts as we’ve before. Imagine the interest payments….

I can not quantify is as anything but devastating. The state of Greece will not survive (at least not in this form), I won’t exclude a military coup.